A WARNING FROM HISTORY – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  If I may, a few words about how our economy might lead us to a military confrontation far larger than any we have today.

There are a number of effects of a weak economy on foreign and defense policy.  One of the major causes of World War II was the Depression.  Americans, and Europeans, had little patience for talk of a Hitler, of German rearmament, or Japanese expansion in Asia.  People at home were suffering.  Tens of millions were out of work.  Americans were losing hope.  The idea that a national administration would devote precious resources to building ships and planes to counter a then-theoretical threat seemed absurd.

The result was that we were woefully unprepared for World War II, both physically and psychologically.  It is ironic that the Depression was one of the causes of the war, for it was the war that ended the Depression.

The psychology today is remarkably similar to that of the late 1930s.  American support for the war in Afghanistan was waned, with most Americans wanting out.  The sense of urgency we felt after the 9-11 attacks is largely gone (although another attack could bring it back.)  We are seriously talking of cutting our defense budget, even though both the Air Force and Navy are flying the oldest fleets of planes in our history. 

Perhaps worst of all, we are ignoring the expansion of Islamist extremism and militarism.

We are also ignoring the rise of a militant, and well equipped China.  The recent news that China is developing missiles to sink American aircraft carriers in the western Pacific was greeted with a huge yawn.

So, a warning from history:  If we take our eye off the foreign-policy ball, we will pay for it, and pay a heavy price.  The Islamists are not affected by economic downturns.  They will live in caves if necessary.  The Chinese will build their powerful military, despite any economic cost.  We may think of Russia as weak, but Russia was far weaker economically as World War II approached, and made mincemeat of the Nazi armies on the Eastern front.

There is a prevailing "wisdom" on the American left that we really don't face any serious military threats, that it's all a creation of the "neo-cons."  That is an awful myth, and we must destroy that myth before it destroys us.

October 7, 2010